Cambridge University has developed an AI tool which it says outperforms existing clinical tests at predicting the progress of Alzheimer’s.

The technology, created by a team of scientists at the University's Department of Psychology, is capable of predicting whether someone with the early signs of dementia will later develop the disease in four out of five cases.

According to the the scientists, the tool's algorithm is around three times more accurate at predicting the progression to Alzheimer’s than current standard clinical markers or diagnosis.

Dementia currently impacts more than 55 million people around the world, with an estimated annual cost of $820 billion. And according to the University, the number of cases is set to nearly treble over the next 50 years.

Senior author Professor Zoe Kourtzi said that at a time of intense pressure on healthcare resources, the new AI tool will help to remove the need for "unnecessary invasive and costly diagnostic tests".

The new technology could also support the improvement of treatment outcomes early when interventions such as lifestyle changes or new medicines may have a chance to work best.

“We’ve created a tool which, despite using only data from cognitive tests and MRI scans, is much more sensitive than current approaches at predicting whether someone will progress from mild symptoms to Alzheimer’s – and if so, whether this progress will be fast or slow," continued Kourtzi. “This has the potential to significantly improve patient wellbeing, showing us which people need closest care, while removing the anxiety for those patients we predict will remain stable."

To build the AI model, researchers at Cambridge University used routinely-collected, non-invasive, and low-cost patient data – cognitive tests and structural MRI scans showing grey matter atrophy – from over 400 individuals who were part of a research cohort in the USA.

They then tested the model using real-world patient data from a further 600 participants from the US cohort and longitudinal data from 900 people from memory clinics in the UK and Singapore.

The algorithm was able to distinguish between people with stable mild cognitive impairment and those who progressed to Alzheimer’s disease within a three-year period.

It could correctly identify individuals who went on to develop Alzheimer’s in 82 per cent of cases, while it also correctly identified those who didn’t in 81 per cent of cases from cognitive tests and an MRI scan alone.

Dr Ben Underwood, honorary consultant psychiatrist at Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trusts and assistant professor at the Department of Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, said: “Memory problems are common as we get older. In clinic I see how uncertainty about whether these might be the first signs of dementia can cause a lot of worry for people and their families, as well as being frustrating for doctors who would much prefer to give definitive answers. The fact that we might be able to reduce this uncertainty with information we already have is exciting and is likely to become even more important as new treatments emerge.”

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